Nevada's Nail-Biter: The 2026 Governor's Race is Down to the Wire!
The 2026 Nevada governor's race is a tight showdown between Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo and Democratic challenger Aaron Ford. With polls showing a near tie, the election hinges on union turnout, fundraising disparities, and nonpartisan voters in a toss-up battle for the battleground state.
Get ready—Nevada’s governor’s race is about as tight as it gets! Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo is hanging on to a slim edge over his challenger, Attorney General Aaron Ford, who’s hoping to flip the script this year. Lombardo’s already proven he can pull off an upset, having knocked out then-Governor Steve Sisolak in 2022, and now both sides are gearing up for another showdown.
If you’ve been watching the polls, you know it’s a rollercoaster—one week Ford’s up, the next it’s Lombardo. It all comes down to when the polls are taken, who gets surveyed, and how the numbers are crunched. Bottom line: this thing is still wide open, though the betting markets give Lombardo a slight advantage at around 54 to 59 percent.
Circle your calendar for November 3, 2026—that’s when Nevadans head to the polls, with primaries happening on June 9. And in true Nevada style, you can even vote for “None of These Candidates” if you’re not feeling the options!
How they got here
In the GOP primary, Lombardo practically coasted—he picked up about 91 percent of the vote. His only real "competition"? That classic Nevada protest pick, “None of These Candidates,” which finished a distant second with just 2.3 percent. Safe to say, Lombardo had the field all to himself.
On the Democratic side, Aaron Ford had to put up a bit more of a fight, winning 63.8 percent against Alexis Hill, the Washoe County Commission chair. There was enough action to keep things lively—and burn through some campaign cash—but Ford never really broke a sweat. He’s heading into November on solid footing.
The candidates
Let’s talk candidates! Joe Lombardo’s been governor since 2023, after a stint as sheriff of Clark County—so he knows how to play to Nevada’s law-and-order crowd. He’s seen as a moderate Republican (at least by today’s standards) and has strong backing from the NFIB Nevada, the Vegas Chamber, the Latin Chamber, and the Asian Chamber. But it’s not all smooth sailing: his midterm results weren’t stellar, and, according to PPP, both he and Ford are slightly underwater in terms of favorability. Plus, he recently lost the support of a key retail-business group.
Now, meet Aaron Ford. He’s been Nevada’s attorney general since 2019—making history as the first Black Nevadan elected statewide—and he used to run the show as Senate majority leader. Ford’s campaign is also smashing fundraising records for a non-incumbent Democrat in Nevada.
So where do they each shine? Ford’s got a statewide win under his belt, major backup from Las Vegas’s culinary and union powerhouses, and tons of grassroots donations. The political winds seem to favor Democrats too, at least for a midterm. Lombardo’s strengths? He’s the incumbent, has deep pockets, big name recognition in Clark County, and a proven track record—remember that 2022 win in a purple state. In short: Ford’s betting on turnout and union muscle, while Lombardo’s banking on his status, war chest, and fame.
And here’s a twist: The Retail Association of Nevada, which was in Lombardo’s corner in 2022, switched sides and endorsed Ford this September. That’s a first in recent memory—and it all comes down to disappointment with Lombardo’s retail policies. Lombardo’s camp fired back by rolling out a list of supportive business chambers and touting job and investment numbers, making the business-versus-labor divide crystal clear.
Polls
This thing could swing by just a point or two—and with so many undecided voters, it’s basically anyone’s game. The upshot? The polls are still bouncing around, and Lombardo’s edge is razor-thin.
| Poll | Dates | Ford | Lombardo | Spread |
| Emerson | Sept 5–8 | 44% | 42% | D+2 |
| PPP (D) | July 15–16 | 44% | 44% | Tie |
| Wedgewood | July 9–12 | 47% | 50% | R+3 |
| Tarrance ® | late July | 43% | 50% | R+7 |
| POS ® | late July | 42% | 51% | R+9 |
| Grassroots Targeting ® | mid-July | 40% | 52% | R+12 |
| Noble (spring) | March | 38% | 39% | R+1 |
Let’s zoom out and check out what the big picture looks like around September 10:
- Wikipedia’s average? Lombardo up by just 1.2 points.
- DDHQ has Lombardo leading by 2.7.
- Silver Bulletin has Lombardo up 1.4.
- RCP? It depends on which poll window you look at—sometimes Ford’s up half a point, sometimes it’s Lombardo.
- Pollsmax, which relies heavily on July data, shows Lombardo ahead by 4.3 points and calls the race Lean R, giving him about a 71 percent chance. Their model projects 51.8 to 48.3.
PPP says both candidates are just a little underwater when it comes to favorability—and Trump isn’t doing any better, clocking in at minus 11 here. The real wild card? Nonpartisan voters—they’re the biggest group and could swing this whole thing. Back in July, GOP-friendly polls hinted at a Lombardo surge, but by September, Emerson’s numbers gave Ford some momentum. Bottom line: it’s super close, with Lombardo barely ahead and Ford definitely still in the hunt.
Ratings
The ratings? Nearly everyone’s calling it a coin flip, but with a slight lean toward the Republicans:
- Cook: Toss-up
- RCP: Toss-up
- Fox / Race to the WH / Silver Bulletin: Toss-up
- Inside Elections: Tilt R
- Sabato: Lean R
- Pollsmax: Lean R (~71% Lombardo)
All of this points to a race that’s basically neck-and-neck, with just the tiniest advantage for Lombardo.
How about those betting markets? This one’s closer than most other governor’s races—and even tighter than Pollsmax’s 71 percent figure lets on.
- Kalshi shows Lombardo at ~54% and Ford at ~46%, with a volume of about $813,000. Regarding the race, Lombardo is at ~46% and Ford at ~44%. The contract for "Lombardo by 2+" is priced at around 38%. The presidential baselines are Trump at +3.1 and Biden at +2.4.
- Polymarket shows Lombardo with 54% and Ford with 46%. The total is about $159,000. An RCP widget earlier in September showed Lombardo at 59%.
The markets see this as a close call rather than a dead heat. They are less certain about Lombardo than the fundamentals model, which differs from Florida (Moody) and matches New Hampshire. That keeps the race framed as a close contest, with Lombardo’s slight incumbent edge against Ford’s narrower but still viable path.
Money
On campaign cash, Lombardo is playing in a different league.
Mid-year snapshots:
- The Lombardo campaign will receive about $9 million in cash and will have about $2.1 to $2.3 million in direct fundraising in Q2.
- Ford’s campaign, meanwhile, has between $2.6 and $3.7 million in the bank (depending on how you count PAC money), and pulled in about $1.4 million directly in Q2.
- The Better Nevada PAC (Lombardo) raised $12 million in the second quarter alone, including $2.5 million from Robert Bigelow, $5 million from the RGA, and $1 million from Benjamin Horowitz.
- All told, Lombardo’s operation brought in about $16 million in Q2, while Ford’s side had a much smaller $2.5 million haul.
- Since December 2025, GOP-aligned groups have dropped about $13 million on ads, while Democrats spent just $77,000 at one checkpoint in July. And here's the kicker: Better Nevada has set aside over $20 million for a fall blitz on TV and digital.
But here’s the twist: Ford’s got the edge with small donors—think tens of thousands of grassroots gifts compared to Lombardo’s tiny slice of individual contributions. Sure, he’s outgunned on TV and digital ads unless the DGA and national unions jump in, but don’t count him out. This contest will be won or lost in Clark County, where Ford’s deep union ties—especially with Las Vegas’s culinary and service workers—could supercharge turnout. These grassroots networks have a solid track record of energizing voters, which means Ford’s spending gap might matter less if his base shows up in force on Election Day.
How to read the race
So, why’s Lombardo the slight favorite? Well, he’s the incumbent—and in Nevada, voters tend to stick with governors who seem on top of crime and tourism. Plus, he’s pulled in a whopping $16 million over the campaign and is a household name in Clark County thanks to his sheriff-turned-governor story. Ford, on the other hand, is counting on a fired-up union base, lots of grassroots donors, and Trump’s weak numbers in the state to even the odds. Sabato and Inside Elections lean toward Lombardo, and the betting markets keep him just above the 50 percent mark.
But don’t count Ford out—he’s got a real shot! Emerson’s polls put him ahead, PPP has it tied, and that Culinary union turnout machine is revved up and ready to go. The retail association endorsement flip is another boost, and Trump’s underwater numbers here might give Ford an extra push. For Ford, it’s all about turnout and catching the right political winds. For Lombardo, it’s about holding steady and making the most of his slight edge.
And don’t forget Nevada’s wild card—the “None of These Candidates” option. It usually scoops up a few percent, mostly as a protest against whoever’s in charge. In recent governor’s races, it’s ranged from 1.4 to 3.2 percent. It’s never decided the winner, but in a squeaker of a race, it could peel off enough votes to make things interesting. Keep an eye on whether it tops the 1.5-point margin Lombardo had last time.
Compared with Arizona, Hobbs is a Democrat running in a state that leans Trump by five points and leads a Freedom Caucus nominee by a high single digit. Lombardo is a Republican incumbent in a state that leans Trump by three points and is statistically tied with the current attorney general. Arizona is Lean/Likely Democratic, while Nevada is Toss-up/Tilt Republican. They should not be considered twins.
The stakes? They couldn’t be higher. Nevada’s one of just two states with a Republican governor where Biden or Harris recently won at the top of the ticket. If Ford pulls off a win, it’s a sign Democrats are gaining ground in diverse, swingy Sun Belt states. If Lombardo hangs on, Republicans get to say 2022 wasn’t a fluke and that their law-and-order message still clicks with Nevadans.
Both parties are glued to Nevada. For Democrats, flipping the governor’s seat would prove that grassroots organizing and union turnout can overcome big money disadvantages—and inspire them to take on more purple-state incumbents. For Republicans, keeping the seat would show they can win tough contests and run things well, reinforcing their focus on law and order and the economy.
So what’s the bottom line as of September 20? Polls say it’s anywhere from dead even to Lombardo up by three. The ratings call it a Toss-up or Lean R; the markets put Lombardo at about 54 percent, and when it comes to fundraising, Lombardo’s got the upper hand. For Ford, it’s all about turnout, coalition-building, and hoping the political winds blow his way.
Now, as Nevada heads into the home stretch, both sides are amped up and ready to fight for every last vote. It could all come down to ground game, last-minute endorsements, or just a handful of undecided voters. This one’s going down to the wire—so stay tuned!
One thing’s for sure: whatever happens in Nevada, political junkies everywhere will be glued to their screens. Whether you’re Team Lombardo, Team Ford, or just here for the drama, this race promises to keep us all guessing until the final ballot is counted. Grab your popcorn—because the story of Nevada’s governor’s race is far from over.
