> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://cameronnyack.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Alaska’s Senate Showdown: Twists, Turns, and a Ballot Brawl Like No Other! - URL: https://cameronnyack.com/alaskas-senate-showdown-twists-turns-and-a-ballot-brawl-like-no-other/ - Published: 2026-09-18T17:02:30.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-18T17:02:30.000Z - Description: Alaska's high-stakes Senate race is heating up as Democrat Mary Peltola challenges incumbent Republican Dan S. Sullivan. With ranked-choice voting in play and a spoiler candidate sharing the incumbent's name, ballot confusion could determine control of the U.S. Senate. - Author: Cameron Nyack - Tags: Alaska Politics, Senate Election, Ranked Choice Voting, Mary Peltola, Dan Sullivan Get ready for one of the most electrifying Senate races in the country—Alaska is shaping up to be an absolute nail-biter! This isn’t just another election. With the high-stakes drama of ranked-choice voting and a wild twist involving two candidates with nearly identical names, the suspense is sky-high. Incumbent Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan is battling Democrat Mary Peltola, a former representative no stranger to big upsets. Add to the mix the ballot shakeup—David B. Leslie (D), who finished fourth in the August 18 top-four primary, withdrew and was replaced by Republican Gerald Heikes. As if things weren’t complicated enough, there’s a second Dan J. Sullivan on the ballot, stirring up confusion and rumors about party affiliations. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system means no one wins until someone breaks 50 percent, and every round of counting could flip the outcome. In a contest this close, every single vote—and every twist—could decide the fate of the Senate. Buckle up! Circle November 3, 2026, on your calendar—this is a showdown you won’t want to miss! The stakes are massive, the atmosphere is unpredictable, and the ghosts of recent elections still linger: Trump took Alaska by 13 points in 2024, cementing its status as a red state. But don’t get too comfortable with old assumptions. Alaska’s voters are famous for bucking trends, supporting independents, and splitting tickets in the most unexpected ways. And with ranked-choice voting already responsible for jaw-dropping upsets in recent cycles, anything can happen this time around. ### The field, plainly August 18 top-four primary (certified): - Mary Peltola (D), 49.5% (82,244) - Sen. Dan S. Sullivan (R, incumbent), 41.4% (68,726) - Dan J. Sullivan Jr., a member of the Republican Party (no party listed), had 2.5 percent (4,107 votes). - David B. Leslie (D) — 1.1% (1,850) — withdrew and therefore was not included on the general ballot. - Gerald Heikes ® — 1.0 to 1.1 percent — was promoted as a replacement for Leslie. The November ballot isn’t just a list—it’s a drama packed with suspense. Peltola, Sen. Dan S. Sullivan, Dan J. Sullivan, and Heikes all appear, but it’s the first two who are truly battling for victory. Yet the wildcard—the second Dan Sullivan—has thrown the whole race into chaos. He’s a bona fide spoiler, and his presence has Republicans whispering that Democrats masterminded this confusion. The courts have allowed him on the ballot, and the polls say he could snag anywhere from 1 to 7 percent—a margin that could flip the entire race! Imagine: just a couple percent of voters, caught by the name confusion, could hand victory to the wrong Sullivan or even swing the whole contest. In 2022, this kind of ballot chaos made the difference in Alaska and Maine, and simulations show that if the spoiler effect surges, history could repeat itself spectacularly. Confusion isn’t just a sideshow—it could decide who goes to the U.S. Senate. ### The candidates Dan S. Sullivan ® has held the seat since 2015 (elected in 2014 and reelected in 2020 with 53.9% of the vote). Marine, formerly Alaska's attorney general and natural resources commissioner, is a national-security conservative. He is aiming for a third term. His advantages are his incumbent status, the Republican baseline, and his energy-and-defense image. His disadvantages are the midterm environment, Peltola's high personal popularity, and the fact that some first-round votes went to both Sullivan and Heikes. Mary Peltola (D) is of Yup’ik descent and hails from western Alaska; she previously served as a state legislator and is the first Alaska Native woman to serve in Congress. She won both the 2022 special election and her full term in the House under ranked-choice voting, but lost the at-large House seat in 2024 as the state shifted right alongside Trump. She is the only Democrat to have recently won a statewide election in this political environment. Her strengths lie with independents, women, voters under 50, Native communities, and her small-donor network. She outraised Sullivan and beat him by eight points in the primary. Dan J. Sullivan Jr. is a retired teacher and a low-profile Republican (or unaffiliated, according to his filing). He is not a serious candidate. On a ranked ballot, he serves merely to create a name clash. David B. Leslie is an LGBTQ+ activist who received 1.1% and then withdrew. Leave him out when voting in November. Gerald Heikes is currently a Republican candidate who has been in the race for several years and is in fourth place. ### Polls (as of September 17–18) The first-round race is typically within a 1- to 5-point margin. RCV simulations tend to favor Peltola. In these simulations, it is generally assumed that most voters who supported the eliminated minor candidates will rank one of the two leading candidates as their next preference, and the transfer patterns commonly rely on recent polling on second-choice preferences or on the distribution observed in previous Alaska RCV elections. The reliability of these projections depends on how well the models reflect voter rankings and on whether name confusion or undervotes have the expected effect on the transfers. | Poll | Dates | First round | RCV / head-to-head | | ---------------------- | ---------- | ------------------------------------------------ | ------------------ | | AARP (Fabrizio/Impact) | Sept 8–11 | Peltola 46, Sen. Sullivan 41, Dan J. 4, Heikes 3 | Peltola 53–47 | | co/efficient ® | Sept 14–17 | Sen. Sullivan 48, Peltola 46, others 1 each | Sullivan \~49–46 | | Rasmussen | Sept 13–14 | 39–39, Dan J. 7, Heikes 6 | n/a | | Change Research | mid-Aug | Peltola 47–41 | — | | NYT/Siena | mid-June | Sullivan 47–45 | — | | Alaska Survey Research | late Aug | Peltola 51–49 | — | Aggregator snapshots: - RCP: Peltola 50.0–48.3 (+1.7) - Wikipedia list of aggregators. Peltola about +2.9 - The four-way average from two new polls shows Peltola at 46.0 and Senator Sullivan at 44.5. According to insights from within AARP, Peltola leads by 32 points among independent voters, by 26 points among those under 50, and by 18 points among women; Democratic enthusiasm for Sullivan (91%) is higher than Republican enthusiasm (83%). That is the theory Peltola put forward regarding the race. The pollster's coefficient, nevertheless, cautions that a consolidation of the Republican vote in the first round could wipe out this lead. ### Ratings - Cook: Toss-up - Sabato: Toss-up - Decision Desk HQ: Toss-up - RealClearPolitics: Toss-up - Inside Elections: Tilt Republican - Pollsmax model: Lean in favor of R, with Sullivan having a 66.6% chance of winning, the estimate being 51.2 to 48.8 — the model is more doubtful about Peltola than the market or the most recent RCV simulations. Handicappers are divided over whether "Peltola is leading a red state in a midterm" and whether "Alaska still elects Republican senators and RCV is not magic". ### Prediction markets (September 18) Most rating services are more optimistic about Peltola and the Democrats. - Kalshi (for the winning party): the Democratic Party at 68–69%, the Republican Party at 32%. The volume is $1.08 million, with about 1.06 million contracts traded and around 598 thousand open. On the same page, there is information about the race: Peltola raised $15.6 million (37% from small-dollar donors), compared to Sullivan, who raised $8.5 million (5.5% from small-dollar donors). - Newsweek’s Sept. 17 snapshot: Kalshi Peltola 68%, Sullivan 35%. Polymarket: Peltola about 67%, Sullivan about 34%. - RCP’s live Polymarket line shows Peltola at 67%. The older Polymarket page, with low volume and still showing Sullivan at 63%, is now out of date (since it's from the early cycle and has an incomplete list of candidates); use the September party-winner and RCP lines instead. The difference between the market and the Pollsmax figures is substantial since the traders are about 2 to 1 in favor of Peltola and one fundamentals model still shows Lean R. This is the same situation as in Maine—markets are pricing in both the midterm and candidate quality together with RCV more aggressively than the structural Republican advantage. ### How ranked choice changes the math Alaska's gubernatorial race is not a plurality race; voters rank the four candidates, and if no candidate gets 50% plus one, the one with the fewest votes is eliminated, and the ballots are redistributed. - The fact that Peltola's first-round percentage of 46 to 51 percent is already nearly a majority. - The reason Sen. Sullivan's first-round result of 39 percent to 48 percent is unreliable is that Dan J. Sullivan and Heikes draw off Republican-identifying votes. Voters who choose Heikes or Dan J. Sullivan are generally expected to rank Sen. Dan S. Sullivan second, since they are affiliated with the Republican Party or attract right-leaning voters. In simulations and in previous Alaska RCV elections, a large majority of the votes cast for minor Republican and unaffiliated candidates have been transferred back to the main Republican candidate. But if even a small number of those voters either use up their ballots without making a second choice or select Peltola as their second preference—especially if they are independents or anti-incumbent Republicans—the transfer of votes could become less predictable, and the final margin could change. - If Sullivan and the other one are eliminated at the first stage, then most of the votes should go to Sen. Sullivan—except perhaps if there is a section of 'wrong Sullivan' voters who are either confused Democrats or anti-incumbent independents and have ranked Peltola second. - After the transfers, AARP's simulation moves Peltola from a plus-5 to a plus-6, a small change, not a huge one. The only risk here is confusion about the names. Rasmussen gave the other Sullivan a 7% figure. If even 2 to 3 of the intended votes for Senator Sullivan end up in the wrong bubble and don't transfer smoothly, then that's how the election turns out. ### Money Peltola has the advantage in campaign funds (\~$15.6M vs. \~$8.5M), and her share of small-donor contributions is also much higher. National Super PACs will spend in this race because it involves one of four or five seats that can change Senate control. Although TV advertising in Alaska is expensive per voter, the total number of voters is small. ### How to read the race Peltola can win because she beat Sullivan in the primary by a margin of 8\. She leads the most recent polls, especially when RCV is factored in. Both independents and younger voters support her. She has greater funds and has already established a coalition for RCV (as shown in the 2022 House election). The current market estimates of 67 to 69 percent view that combination as a lean Democratic flip in a state where Trump has a plus-13 lead. Sen. Sullivan can win because Alaska remains a Republican state in presidential elections. He has won the state twice. Republican party ratings (Tilt/Lean R from Inside Elections and Pollsmax) assume the fragmentation seen in the first round will be resolved through vote transfers and that, during the midterms, Democrats will perform poorly among rural white men and energy workers. The coefficient currently indicates that he is leading in the first round. Incumbents in Alaska usually secure victory. In November, Leslie was irrelevant; he was a primary Democrat who represented the 1% and had taken the position now held by a Republican, which was somewhat disadvantageous for Peltola compared with a situation in which a second Democrat had remained and provided second-choice votes. This Senate race matters because Republicans hold the seat in a state that supports Trump. One of the four net gains that the Democrats need is a victory for Peltola. The markets have been viewing Alaska as one of the more probable states in which the GOP will lose, together with Maine. Bottom line as of September 18: First-round polls are a coin flip with a slight Peltola edge. RCV sims widen that edge. Ratings say toss-up to Tilt R. Real-money markets say Peltola / Democrats roughly 2-to-1. The extra candidates (especially the other Dan Sullivan) are the variable that does not exist in Michigan, Ohio, or Maine. Turnout remains a wild card—especially among independents, younger voters, and Alaska Native communities, all key groups for Peltola—while Republicans hope for strong returns from their rural and working-class base. If turnout among these blocs shifts more than expected either way, it could reshape a close race. If transfers behave like a normal GOP runoff, Sullivan can still win a race he is losing on first preferences. If they do not, Peltola becomes the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Alaska in a generation.